The Birthday Paradox For Playing Cards: Explained

There is a strange playing card phenomenon with no particular name that I found in an elusive magic trick book as a child. Some call it the two-card correlation phenomenon, while others call it the Birthday Paradox for playing cards.

I will illustrate below.

Here is a sample of a shuffled deck:

Jack of Diamonds
10 of Hearts
2 of Diamonds
2 of Spades
3 of Clubs
Ace of Diamonds
7 of Clubs

Call out two values, such as 6 and 7. I have personally found that about half of the time, those two cards will be directly next to each other at least once as you spread through the deck:

Queen of Spades
5 of Clubs
4 of Spades
6 of Hearts
7 of Clubs
Jack of Clubs
3 of Clubs

A bit more than half of the time, there will be exactly one card wedged in between:

2 of Hearts
Ace of Clubs
6 of Hearts
8 of Spades
7 of Clubs
King of Diamonds
4 of Hearts

Weird, right? The phenomenon pulls from elements of multiple mathematical principles:

Of course, this directly relates to the Birthday Paradox. This paradox proposes that there is a good chance that, in a group of at least 23 people, two of them will share a birthdate. 1

Gilbreath's First Principle states that after you have arranged the cards to alternate in color, cut it in half so that one pile has a black card at the bottom and the other has a red card at the bottom, replaced the cut, and given it a good riffle shuffle, when you alternately deal out the cards into two piles, they will still alternate between red and black. We learn from Gilbreath's First Principle that there is a great mathematical probability of any two given cards being next to one another, even if not specifically red and black in color. 2 3

The Poisson clumping principle contends that within randomness, events seem to appear in clusters by chance. 4

The Law of Truly Large Numbers concludes that with a large enough number of opportunities, coincidences, such as clumping, appear more common than you would think. 5

Now, go show your friends this mathematical magic trick and watch their reactions.

Sources:

  1. https://www.csuohio.edu/sites/default/files/86B-2016.pdf
  2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4bShnWnhD8
  3. https://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s5_9510.pdf
  4. https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Lectures/lecture_6.pdf
  5. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111360
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